Evaluation protocols for flammable and toxic dispersion models. Issue 2 (25th September 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gavelli, Filippo; Hendrickson, Bryant; Kooy, Rich; Kolade, Babajide
• Is Part Of: Process safety progress. Volume 41:Issue 2(2022)
• Page Start: 362
• Page End: 371
• Publication Date: 2021-09-25
• Subjects: dispersion -- LNG -- model evaluation -- model validation; Chemical plants -- Management -- Periodicals; 660
• DOI: 10.1002/prs.12311
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1066-8527

Abstract

Abstract: The siting of liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities requires several types of hazards to be quantified so that the risk to the public and public property in areas surrounding each facility can be properly assessed. In order to quantify the hazards from potential accident scenarios, computational tools must be used. Given the multiplicity of tools available, ranging from empirical models to 3D computational fluid dynamics packages, the agency responsible for reviewing the hazard analysis may not have the methodologies or protocols necessary to determine the suitability of a given model to a certain scenario, its accuracy, and any other setup requirements. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) commissioned Blue Engineering and Consulting and the Gas Technology Institute to develop a set of model evaluation protocols (MEPs) that will allow the review of modeling tools for several different hazards, including flammable and toxic dispersion, source terms for dispersion models, vapor cloud explosions, and boiling liquid expanding vapor explosions (BLEVEs). The project will provide PHMSA with the means to properly evaluate modeling tools for these hazards, which are required to be evaluated in an LNG facility siting study. It will also provide clarity to LNG plant developers and their safety consultants on which models may be used and which safety factors need to be applied, and will increase the public's confidence in the regulatory review process of LNG facilities. This article discusses the first two MEPs completed as part of this project, which are focused on evaluating flammable dispersion and toxic dispersion models, respectively. This article describes the evaluation methodology, including the information to be submitted by the model proponents and the review process, and the model validation databases compiled for each protocol.