A spatial multinomial logit model for analysing urban expansion. Issue 2 (3rd April 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Krisztin, Tamás; Piribauer, Philipp; Wögerer, Michael
• Is Part Of: Spatial economic analysis. Volume 17:Issue 2(2022)
• Page Start: 223
• Page End: 244
• Publication Date: 2022-04-03
• Subjects: urban expansion -- land-use change -- spatial multinomial logit model -- European regions; C11 -- C21 -- C25 -- O13 -- R14; Space in economics -- Periodicals; Economic geography -- Periodicals; Space in economics -- Econometric models -- Periodicals; Urbanization -- Periodicals; Espace (Économie politique) -- Périodiques; Économétrie -- Périodiques; Géographie économique -- Périodiques; Économie industrielle -- Périodiques; Économie du travail -- Périodiques; Économie urbaine -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Relations économiques internationales -- Périodiques; 330.9
• DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2021.1933579
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1742-1772

Abstract

ABSTRACT: The paper proposes a Bayesian multinomial logit model to analyse spatial patterns of urban expansion. The specification assumes that the log-odds of each class follow a spatial autoregressive process. Using recent advances in Bayesian computing, our model allows for a computationally efficient treatment of the spatial multinomial logit model. This allows us to assess spillovers between regions and across land-use classes. In a series of Monte Carlo studies, we benchmark our model against other competing specifications. The paper also showcases the performance of the proposed specification using European regional data. Our results indicate that spatial dependence plays a key role in the land-sealing process of cropland and grassland. Moreover, we uncover land-sealing spillovers across multiple classes of arable land.