A 2030 and 2050 feasible/sustainable decarbonization perusal for China's Sichuan Province: A deep carbon neutrality analysis and EnergyPLAN. (1st June 2022) - Bamisile, Olusola
Highlights: Analysis of the techno-economic pathways to net-zero emission attainment in China. Analysis of peak carbon emission and carbon neutrality by year 2030 and 2050. Solar PV, biomass, hydro, and wind power are considered for 100 % decarbonization. River hydro is constructed considering dry, normal, and wet years. Carbon emission is reduced by 13.26% to 15.3% between 2030 and 2050. Abstract: With the imminent acute problems and the harsh reality of climate change, many countries/groups of countries have developed policies to reduce their carbon emission. At the end of 2020, the Chinese government announced a revised policy that will see the country attain carbon neutrality by 2060 and peak emission by 2030. This study aims to determine the techno-economic requirements for net-zero emission attainment in China. The models created are used to explicate the 100% integration of renewable energy into the energy systems in a Province in China considering the years 2030 and 2050. This study is novel as it aggregates the detailed requirements of all the energy sectors and the government policies for the case study. While the approach presented in this paper is applied specifically to Sichuan Province, China, the application of this method is limitless as it is vast and viable for other countries. This study can also serve as a template for many high carbon-emitting countries with sizeable RE potential. The total energy demand in the case study is summarized under three sectors; electricity, industry, and transport. Following the government policies, renewable energy sources such as wind power, solar PV, river hydro, and biomass are considered for 100% decarbonization of the case study. River hydro being the predominant renewable energy source in this region is constructed considering three levels of hydro (dry, normal, and wet) years. The 2017 energy demand and supply data are first used to develop/validate the model on the EnergyPLAN simulation platform, then the 2030 proposed pathway to peak carbon emission by the government is analyzed. Three innovative pathways to net-zero emission attainment by 2050 are proposed in this study considering the additional use of biomass (BIO model), pumped hydro storage (EES model), and the import of clean electricity from neighboring provinces (IMP model). Based on the analyses in this study, the proposed pathway by the government cannot achieve net-zero emission by 2050, however, the three optimized strategies/models presented in this study show a clearer and faster path to decarbonization. Carbon emission will reduce by 13.26 %, 14.77%, and 15.3 % between 2030 and 2050 reference models for the dry, normal, and wet year scenarios respectively. From the three optimization models, the total cost of the import model was the lowest under different scenarios. Therefore, the economic feasibility of this approach proves the superiority of the import model in terms of economic benefits.