Prediction of Febrile Neutropenia after Chemotherapy Based on Pretreatment Risk Factors among Cancer Patients. (4th October 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Aagaard, Theis; Roen, Ashley; Daugaard, Gedske; Brown, Peter; Sengeløv, Henrik; Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens; Helleberg, Marie
• Is Part Of: Open forum infectious diseases. Volume 4(2017)Supplement 1
• Page Start: S700
• Page End: S700
• Publication Date: 2017-10-04
• Subjects: Communicable diseases -- Periodicals; Medical microbiology -- Periodicals; Infection -- Periodicals; 616.9
• DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofx163.1878
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2328-8957

Abstract

Abstract: Background: Febrile neutropenia (FN) is a common complication to chemotherapy associated with a high burden of morbidity and mortality. Reliable prediction of individual risk based on pretreatment risk factors allows for stratification of preventive interventions. We aimed to develop such a risk stratification model to predict FN in the 30 days after initiation of chemotherapy. Methods: We included consecutive treatment-naïve patients with solid cancers and diffuse large B-cell lymphomas at Copenhagen University Hospital, 2010–2015. Data were obtained from the PERSIMUNE repository of electronic health records. FN was defined as neutrophils ≤0.5 × 10E9/L ​at the time of either a blood culture sample or death. Time from initiation of chemotherapy to FN was analyzed using Fine-Gray models with death as a competing event. Risk factors investigated were: age, sex, body surface area, haemoglobin, albumin, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and chemotherapy drugs. Parameter estimates were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The scores were grouped into four: low, intermediate, high and very high risk. Results: Among 8, 585 patients, 467 experienced FN, incidence rate/30 person-days 0.05 (95% CI, 0.05–0.06). Age (1 point if > 65 years), albumin (1 point if < 39 g/L), CCI (1 point if > 2) and chemotherapy (range -5 to 6 points/drug) predicted FN. Median score at inclusion was 2 points (range –5 to 9). The cumulative incidence and the incidence rates and hazard ratios of FN are shown in Figure 1 and Table 1, respectively. Conclusion: We developed a risk score to predict FN the first month after initiation of chemotherapy. The score is easy to use and provides good differentiation of risk groups; the score needs independent validation before routine use. Disclosures: All authors: No reported disclosures.