Variance Gamma process as degradation model for prognosis and imperfect maintenance of centrifugal pumps. (July 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Salem, Marwa Belhaj; Fouladirad, Mitra; Deloux, Estelle
• Is Part Of: Reliability engineering & system safety. Volume 223(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-07
• Subjects: Variance Gamma -- Stochastic Degradation model -- Statistical inference -- Remaining useful life estimation -- Prognostic -- Sensitivity analysis -- Estimation error propagation -- Imperfect maintenance; Reliability (Engineering) -- Periodicals; System safety -- Periodicals; Industrial safety -- Periodicals; Fiabilité -- Périodiques; Sécurité des systèmes -- Périodiques; Sécurité du travail -- Périodiques; 620.00452
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108417
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0951-8320

Abstract

Abstract: This paper considers the degradation modelling of a non-monotonous health indicator. A Variance Gamma process is proposed for the degradation modelling and its calibration in presence of data is discussed. The remaining useful lifetime estimation based on this model is considered and its sensitivity to parameters estimates is analysed. The model is applied to real data of leakage rate of centrifugal pump. Eventually, an imperfect maintenance policy is proposed and optimized. Highlights: Variance Gamma Process (VGP) as a non-monotonous degradation model. Failure time estimation and sensitivity analysis. Prognosis and uncertainty analysis. Prognosis for Centrifugal pump's degradation. Cost based Imperfect condition-based maintenance optimization.