Hedgehog or fox? Theories of change for dryland cereals in Eastern Africa. (22nd December 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Orr, Alastair; Muange, Elijah
• Is Part Of: Journal of international development. Volume 34:Number 3(2022)
• Page Start: 532
• Page End: 549
• Publication Date: 2021-12-22
• Subjects: commercialisation -- Eastern Africa -- millets -- sorghum -- Theory of Change; Economic development projects -- Developing countries -- Periodicals; Developing countries -- Economic policy -- Periodicals; Developing countries -- Foreign economic relations -- Periodicals; Economic development -- Periodicals; 330.91724
• DOI: 10.1002/jid.3612
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0954-1748

Abstract

Abstract: International Crops Research Institute for the Semi‐Arid Tropics' (ICRISAT) research strategy for sorghum and millets is based on market‐led development. We analyse the construction of this Theory of Change and its application to Eastern Africa using evidence from the Harnessing Opportunities for Productivity Enhancement (HOPE) project. We trace the evolution of market discourse in ICRISAT and ask why this discourse became so influential. The scale of commercialisation was limited, and its effect on intensification was mixed. A Green Revolution for dryland cereals in Eastern Africa may come not from improved varieties that give higher yields but that mature early and evade drought. A modified Theory of Change for dryland cereals requires greater recognition of household food security, farmer agency and regional heterogeneity.