Research, monitoring, and reflection as a guide to the management of complex ecosystems: The case of fire in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. Issue 4 (22nd February 2022) - van Wilgen, Brian W.
Abstract: Conservation managers frequently set goals and monitor progress toward them. This often becomes a routine annual exercise, and periodic reflection over longer periods is done less often, if at all. We report on the annual monitoring of fire patterns in the Kruger National Park between 2012 and 2020, and examine how these compared with desired thresholds of spatial extent and intensity. These thresholds were based on decades of research and were aimed at achieving specific ecological outcomes. The patterns were outside of thresholds in two out of five fire management zones. In one (Zone 1), the goal was to encourage frequent burning, and this was marginally not achieved due to a severe drought during the period assessed. In Zone 3, a reduction in extent and intensity was desired, but thresholds for both were substantially exceeded. An exceedance in any given year might not trigger a management response, but if this occurs over multiple years it should trigger an examination of whether these exceedances affected the desired ecological outcomes. On reflection, we recommend that current management in four zones need not change, but that Zone 3 would require appropriate interventions. The available options can simultaneously produce positive and negative conservation outcomes, so trade‐offs become necessary. By reflecting on research findings and management challenges, the advantages and disadvantages of available options have become clear, providing a basis for prioritization and compromise.