Externalism and exploitability. (6th December 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Das, Nilanjan
• Is Part Of: Philosophy and phenomenological research. Volume 104:Number 1(2022)
• Page Start: 101
• Page End: 128
• Publication Date: 2020-12-06
• Subjects: Philosophy -- Periodicals; Phenomenology -- Periodicals; 100
• DOI: 10.1111/phpr.12742
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0031-8205

Abstract

Abstract: According to Bayesian orthodoxy, an agent should update—or at least should plan to update—her credences by conditionalization. Some have defended this claim by means of a diachronic Dutch book argument . They say: an agent who does not plan to update her credences by conditionalization is vulnerable (by her own lights) to a diachronic Dutch book, i.e., a sequence of bets which, when accepted, guarantee loss of utility. Here, I show that this argument is in tension with evidence externalism, i.e., the view that an agent's evidence can entail non‐trivial propositions about the external world. I argue that this tension casts doubt on the idea that diachronic Dutch books can be used to justify or vindicate updating plans.