Novel Evidence Showing the Possible Effect of Environmental Variables on COVID‐19 Spread. (15th March 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zhang, Sixuan; Wang, Bingyun; Yin, Li; Wang, Shigong; Hu, Wendong; Song, Xueqian; Feng, Hongmei
• Is Part Of: GeoHealth. Volume 6:Number 3(2022)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2022-03-15
• Subjects: COVID‐19 -- climate -- meteorological indicators -- correlation -- latitude; Environmental health -- Periodicals; Electronic journals; Periodicals; 616.98
• DOI: 10.1029/2021GH000502
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2471-1403

Abstract

Abstract: Coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) remains a serious issue, and the role played by meteorological indicators in the process of virus spread has been a topic of academic discussion. Previous studies reached different conclusions due to inconsistent methods, disparate meteorological indicators, and specific time periods or regions. This manuscript is based on seven daily meteorological indicators in the NCEP reanalysis data set and COVID‐19 data repository of Johns Hopkins University from 22 January 2020 to 1 June 2021. Results showed that worldwide average temperature and precipitable water (PW) had the strongest correlation ( ρ > 0.9, p < 0.001) with the confirmed COVID‐19 cases per day from 22 January to 31 August 2020. From 22 January to 31 August 2020, positive correlations were observed between the temperature/PW and confirmed COVID‐19 cases/deaths in the northern hemisphere, whereas negative correlations were recorded in the southern hemisphere. From 1 September to 31 December 2020, the opposite results were observed. Correlations were weak throughout the near full year, and weak negative correlations were detected worldwide (| ρ | < 0.4, p ≤ 0.05); the lag time had no obvious effect. As the latitude increased, the temperature and PW of the maximum confirmed COVID‐19 cases/deaths per day generally showed a decreasing trend; the 2020‐year fitting functions of the response latitude pattern were verified by the 2021 data. Meteorological indicators, although not a decisive factor, may influence the virus spread by affecting the virus survival rates and enthusiasm of human activities. The temperature or PW threshold suitable for the spread of COVID‐19 may increase as the latitude decreases. Plain Language Summary: Climate change has altered life's living environment; humans seem to be able to adapt to climate change within a certain range. This adaptability seems to be human talent, but how about a coronavirus? The impact of environmental variables on coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) spread varies between regions. The two meteorological variables that are most likely to affect the distribution of COVID‐19 have significant latitude patterns, which means that in areas with higher climate temperatures, the temperature range for the maximum spread of COVID‐19 is higher, while in areas with lower climate temperatures, the temperature for the maximum spread of COVID‐19 is lower. Perhaps it indicates that the virus also has the ability to adapt to climate change, even more so than humanity. The complete cessation of COVID‐19 pandemic requires everyone's efforts. Key Points: A more than yearlong and global scale analysis showed environmental variables having a possible influence on coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) spread Temperature and precipitable water had the strongest correlations with COVID‐19 ( ρ > 0.9, p < 0.001) than common meteorological indicators The latitude pattern of COVID‐19 may be a key point in the prediction of the next round of its outbreak