Party does not matter: Unified government and midterm elections. (16th February 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Holt, Jacob
• Is Part Of: Social science quarterly. Volume 103:Number 1(2022)
• Page Start: 168
• Page End: 180
• Publication Date: 2022-02-16
• Subjects: congressional elections -- midterm elections; Political science -- Periodicals; Social sciences -- Periodicals; 300
• DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13112
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0038-4941

Abstract

Abstract: Objective: This article seeks to understand the effect unified government has on seat loss in midterm elections. Methods: Using data from the 1950 to 2018 midterm elections, I use Ordinary Least Squares regression models to determine the effect of unified government on seat loss. Results: I find that unified government increases the number of seats a president's party loses during a midterm election. In addition, unified government reduces the number of seats saved by presidential approval and increases surge and decline effects. Conclusion: Unified government explains why Democrats have traditionally performed worse during midterm elections. The results also indicate that rather than a surge and decline, midterm elections are a counter‐surge to the surge in support the president's party receives in the previous presidential election.