Why Didn't Ukraine Fight for Crimea? Evidence from Declassified National Security and Defense Council Proceedings. Issue 2 (4th March 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Lenton, Adam Charles
• Is Part Of: Problems of post-communism. Volume 69:Issue 2(2022)
• Page Start: 145
• Page End: 154
• Publication Date: 2022-03-04
• Subjects: Post-communism -- Periodicals; Post-communism; Periodicals; 330.91717
• DOI: 10.1080/10758216.2021.1901595
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1075-8216

Abstract

ABSTRACT: While the Russian decision to annex Crimea has been widely explored and debated, scholarship has largely overlooked the Ukrainian response. Why did the Ukrainian side refrain from escalating? I address this gap, leveraging recently declassified primary-source materials from Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council to provide an original explanation for the Ukrainian decision not to fight for the peninsula. I find evidence in favor of realist explanations, while domestic politics was largely absent in decision-makers' discussions. Additionally, I find prospect theory to offer a compelling account for the Ukrainian decision. This article therefore explains why decision-makers were risk-averse despite the loss of Ukrainian territory.