Looking Forward and Backward at Extreme Event Attribution in Climate Policy. Issue 1 (2nd January 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Lusk, Greg
• Is Part Of: Ethics, policy & environment. Volume 25:Issue 1(2022)
• Page Start: 37
• Page End: 51
• Publication Date: 2022-01-02
• Subjects: risk management -- climate change adaptation -- extreme weather -- decision-making -- environment -- climate policy; Environmental ethics -- Periodicals; Environmental policy -- Periodicals; 179.1
• DOI: 10.1080/21550085.2020.1848195
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2155-0085

Abstract

ABSTRACT: How the science of probabilistic extreme event attribution might inform climate change adaptation is hotly debated. Central to these debates is an understanding that event attribution's backward-looking orientation aligns poorly with the forward-facing goals of adaptation policy. Here, I analyze two new philosophical arguments that challenge this understanding and claim that probabilistic event attribution is not only forward-looking, but has a potentially significant role in risk-pooling adaptive strategies. I argue the purported forward-looking capabilities of event attribution are based on a mischaracterization of the scientific methodology, and one consequence of this mischaracterization is a limited role in adaptive risk-pooling schemes.