Traffic accident hotspot identification by integrating kernel density estimation and spatial autocorrelation analysis: a case study. Issue 2 (4th March 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Le, Khanh Giang; Liu, Pei; Lin, Liang-Tay
• Is Part Of: International journal of crashworthiness. Volume 27:Issue 2(2022)
• Page Start: 543
• Page End: 553
• Publication Date: 2022-03-04
• Subjects: Traffic accidents (TA) -- hotspot -- geographic information system (GIS) -- kernel density estimation (KDE) -- spatial autocorrelation -- statistical significance; Automobiles -- Crashworthiness -- Periodicals; Airplanes -- Crashworthiness -- Periodicals; 629.2042
• DOI: 10.1080/13588265.2020.1826800
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1358-8265

Abstract

Abstract: The study presented an approach that integrated kernel density estimation (KDE) algorithm and spatial autocorrelation analysis, which helped to determine traffic accident (TA) hotspot locations and simultaneously evaluate the statistical significance of the hotspot clusters. Firstly, hotspots were identified by applying a GIS-based KDE algorithm. Secondly, the hotspot clusters were evaluated in terms of statistical significance by applying the Moran's I statistic indices. Finally, hotspots were arranged according to their significance. TA data in the (2015–2017) period in Hanoi, Vietnam were applied to test this approach. Importantly, the study proposed a validation process for the results by applying the Gi* statistics method to validate the (H-H) clusters and the EPDO method to validate the ranking of hotspots. The results showed that this integration overcame the drawbacks of the KDE method. The statistical test process of clusters helped to hinder the occurrence of too many clusters that were determined by the KDE method because they were not really dangerous. This approach was helpful and precise in identifying TA hotspots with the statistical meaning. These outcomes will not only enable traffic authorities to comprehensively understand the reasons for each accident but also to help them manage and deal with hazardous areas according to the prior order in case of limited expenses and allocate traffic safety sources accordingly.