Quantifying the effect of government interventions and virus mutations on transmission advantage during COVID-19 pandemic. Issue 3 (March 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Lou, Jingzhi; Zheng, Hong; Zhao, Shi; Cao, Lirong; Wong, Eliza LY; Chen, Zigui; Chan, Renee WY; Chong, Marc KC; Zee, Benny CY; Chan, Paul KS; Yeoh, Eng-kiong; Wang, Maggie H
• Is Part Of: Journal of infection and public health. Volume 15:Issue 3(2022)
• Page Start: 338
• Page End: 342
• Publication Date: 2022-03
• Subjects: SARS-CoV-2 -- Government interventions -- Virus activities -- G-measure; Communicable diseases -- Periodicals; Public health -- Periodicals; Epidemiology -- Periodicals; Nosocomial infections -- Prevention -- Periodicals; Medical microbiology -- Periodicals; 614.4
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2022.01.020
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1876-0341

Abstract

Abstract: Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become a major public health threat. This study aims to evaluate the effect of virus mutation activities and policy interventions on COVID-19 transmissibility in Hong Kong. Methods: In this study, we integrated the genetic activities of multiple proteins, and quantified the effect of government interventions and mutation activities against the time-varying effective reproduction number R t . Findings: We found a significantly positive relationship between R t and mutation activities and a significantly negative relationship between R t and government interventions. The results showed that the mutations that contributed most to the increase of R t were from the spike, nucleocapsid and ORF1b genes. Policy of prohibition on group gathering was estimated to have the largest impact on mitigating virus transmissibility. The model explained 63.2% of the R t variability with the R 2 . Conclusion: Our study provided a convenient framework to estimate the effect of genetic contribution and government interventions on pathogen transmissibility. We showed that the S, N and ORF1b protein had significant contribution to the increase of transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in Hong Kong, while restrictions of public gathering and suspension of face-to-face class are the most effective government interventions strategies.