The Impact of COVID-19 on Trump's Electoral Demise: The Role of Economic and Democratic Accountability. Issue 1 (20th March 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Neundorf, Anja; Pardos-Prado, Sergi
• Is Part Of: Perspectives on politics. Volume 20:Issue 1(2022)
• Page Start: 170
• Page End: 186
• Publication Date: 2022-03-20
• Subjects: Political science -- Periodicals; International relations -- Periodicals; United States -- Politics and government -- Periodicals; United States -- Politics and government -- 2001-2009 -- Periodicals; United States -- Politics and government -- 2009- -- Periodicals; 320
• DOI: 10.1017/S1537592721001961
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1537-5927

Abstract

Abstract : Did the COVID-19 crisis have a significant effect on Trump's electoral demise? We present survey experimental evidence on two substantial effects of the pandemic. First, information on the unprecedented economic downturn significantly depressed Trump's popular support across all partisan groups, and especially among middle-low and low-income respondents. Second, being primed on the poor public health record of the Trump administration reduced its electoral prospects among citizens between 55 and 70 years old. We conclude that the 2020 election was a normal contest compatible with theories of economic voting and political competence. Our results suggest that democratic accountability can be a powerful determinant of the fate of populist leaders once in power.