Modeling invasion potential of Lantana camara under the changing climate and land use/land cover change in Ethiopia: Its implication for management of the species. (2nd November 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Sintayehu, Dejene W.; Cherenet, Elias; Ebrahim, Awol S.; Woldeyes, Feleke
• Is Part Of: Plant biosystems. Volume 155:Number 6(2021)
• Page Start: 1189
• Page End: 1197
• Publication Date: 2021-11-02
• Subjects: Climate change -- biodiversity -- invasion -- Lantana camara -- suitable -- ecological niche modeling; Botany -- Periodicals; Biological systems -- Periodicals; Plants -- Periodicals; 581
• DOI: 10.1080/11263504.2020.1864494
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1126-3504

Abstract

Abstract: This study aimed to examine the current and future invasion potential of L. camara in Ethiopia under climate and land use/land cover changes and describes its possible range shift using an ensemble modeling approach. Under the current environmental condition, 4.2% of the total area of Ethiopia is suitable for L. camara invasion with three invasion hotspots identified in: the central, the northern, and the eastern Ethiopia hotspots. Of the total suitable areas, 0.6% has highest suitability, while 1.3% and 2.3% have moderate and low suitability, respectively. In 2050s, the area of highly suitable area for L. camara is expected to increase by 50% and 53.8%, while moderately suitable area is expected to increase by 43.5% and 51.9% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Highly suitable area for the species is projected to increase by 62.5% and 68.4% by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. This study has revealed that L. camara will likely expand its invading ranges towards areas characterized by warmer temperature as this climatic condition become more favorable. The results of this study can provide valuable information for strategic planning for invasive species, by identifying areas prone to invasion for possible mitigation-related interventions.