Functional principal component analysis as a versatile technique to understand and predict the electric consumption patterns. (March 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Beretta, Davide; Grillo, Samuele; Pigoli, Davide; Bionda, Enea; Bossi, Claudio; Tornelli, Carlo
• Is Part Of: Sustainable energy, grids and networks. Volume 21(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-03
• Subjects: Electric consumption -- Functional principal component analysis -- FPCA -- Patterns -- Analysis -- Prediction; Renewable energy sources -- Periodicals; Smart power grids -- Periodicals; Electric power systems -- Periodicals; 333.794
• DOI: 10.1016/j.segan.2020.100308
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2352-4677

Abstract

Abstract: Understanding and predicting the electric consumption patterns in the short-, mid- and long-term, at the distribution and transmission level, is a fundamental asset for smart grids infrastructure planning, dynamic network reconfiguration, dynamic energy pricing and savings, and thus energy efficiency. This work introduces the Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA) as a versatile method to both investigate and predict, at different level of spatial aggregation, the consumption patterns. The method was applied to a unique and sensitive dataset that includes electric consumption and contractual information of Milan metropolitan area. The decomposition of the load patterns into principal functions was found to be a powerful method to identify the physical and behavioral causes underlying the daily consumptions, given knowledge of exogenous variables such as calendar and meteorological data. The effectiveness of long-term predictions based on principal functions was proved on Milan's metropolitan area data and assessed on a publicly-available dataset. Highlights: Understanding the behavior of load patterns is crucial in modern power systems. Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA) is used to reduce the complexity. This methodology has been validated on MV/LV substations of a large city. FPCA is shown to be a valuable tool to describe the underlying processes of loads. FPCA is a promising approach for long-term load forecasting.