Innovative application of strategic foresight to oncology research. Issue 5 (12th November 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Bishop, Peter; Tamarchak, Rebecca; Williams, Christine; Radvanyi, Laszlo
• Is Part Of: Foresight. Volume 22:Issue 5/6(2020)
• Page Start: 533
• Page End: 550
• Publication Date: 2020-11-12
• Subjects: Cancer -- Strategic planning -- Foresight -- Scenario; Forecasting -- Periodicals; Policy sciences -- Periodicals; 320.05
• DOI: 10.1108/FS-03-2020-0028
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1463-6689

Abstract

Abstract : Purpose: This study aims to investigate into the future of cancer and cancer research in preparation for a strategic plan for a cancer research centre. Design/methodology/approach: The study used framework foresight, a method for creating scenarios and their implications developed by the MS program in Foresight at the University of Houston. Findings: The study identified four scenarios: a continuation scenario in which progress in detecting and treating cancer progressed as it has over the past few decades, a collapse scenario in which attention was diverted from medical research due to a climate crisis, a new equilibrium scenario in which cost became the overriding concern for cancer treatment, and a transformation scenario in which individuals took control of their treatment through Do-It-Yourself remedies. Those scenarios suggested four strategic issues for the planning exercise: the growing volume of genomic and clinical data and the means to learn from it, the increased involvement and influence of patients in diagnosis and treatment, the ability to conduct research in a time of fiscal austerity and declining levels of trust in all professions, including medicine. Research limitations/implications: The paper not only provides guidance for cancer centers but also for medical practice in general. Practical implications: The client used the scenarios and their implications as part of its considerations in strategic planning. Originality/value: This paper represents the first time that Framework Foresight has been applied to a medical topic.