HOW WILL DEPENDENCY-FREE LIFE EXPECTANCY IN ENGLAND EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS FOR MEN AND WOMEN?. (11th November 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Kingston, A; Jagger, C
• Is Part Of: Innovation in aging. Volume 2(2018)Supplement 1
• Page Start: 14
• Page End: 14
• Publication Date: 2018-11-11
• Subjects: Aging -- Periodicals; Gerontology -- Periodicals; 612.67
• DOI: 10.1093/geroni/igy023.051
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2399-5300

Abstract

Abstract: Most research on time trends in health expectancy concentrate on disability rather than dependency, inferring care needs from inability to perform Basic Activities of Daily Living (BADL). We use a more transparent measure of care needs/dependency, based on Instrumental ADL, BADL, incontinence and cognitive impairment, which categorises dependency as: high (24-hour care); medium (daily care); low (less than daily); independent. We use the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim), a dynamic microsimulation model, which simulates individuals' sociodemographic factors, health behaviours, 12 chronic diseases and geriatric conditions, and dependency, using three longitudinal studies, to estimate years spent in each dependency state from 2015 to 2035, for older men and women. We find that men aged 65 years will see a compression of dependency whilst women aged 65 years will see an expansion of mainly low dependency. We discuss these results in the light of changes in specific diseases/geriatric conditions and multi-morbidity.