Projected Changes in the Probability Distributions, Seasonality, and Spatiotemporal Scaling of Daily and Subdaily Extreme Precipitation Simulated by a 50‐Member Ensemble Over Northeastern North America. Issue 19 (15th October 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Innocenti, S.; Mailhot, A.; Leduc, M.; Cannon, A. J.; Frigon, A.
• Is Part Of: Journal of geophysical research. Volume 124:Issue 19(2019)
• Page Start: 10427
• Page End: 10449
• Publication Date: 2019-10-15
• Subjects: extreme precipitation -- large ensemble -- climate change -- spatiotemporal scaling -- annual and diurnal cycles; Atmospheric physics -- Periodicals; Geophysics -- Periodicals; 551.5
• DOI: 10.1029/2019JD031210
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2169-897X

Abstract

Abstract: Global warming is expected to produce modifications in the intensity, as well as in the seasonality and spatiotemporal structure of extreme precipitation. In the present study, the temporal evolution of simulated daily and subdaily precipitation extremes was analyzed to assess how they respond to climate warming over different time horizons. Pooling series from the recent 50‐member Canadian Regional Climate Model v5 Large Ensemble, the probability distributions, date and time of occurrences, and spatiotemporal structure of simulated Annual Maxima (AM) precipitation were analyzed at various spatial scales and for durations between 1 hr and 3 days. In agreement with previous studies, the results underline the large increases in AM precipitation quantiles, especially for the shortest durations and for the more extreme events (i.e., longest return periods), and modifications in their spatiotemporal scaling properties and annual and diurnal cycles. For instance, subdaily AM extremes are expected to occur later in the evening, while, no matter the duration, the extremes are expected to occur over a wider period of the year in future climate. Finally, the analysis of projected AM probability distributions showed that heavy‐tail Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions will most likely be observed in the future climate, with some model grid boxes experiencing a significant increase of GEV shape parameters. These results may have major consequences in terms of the occurrence and possible impacts of the most extreme precipitation events. Key Points: Pooling data from the 50 CRCM5‐LE members allowed to robustly assess the temporal evolution of extreme precipitation properties The largest increases are expected in Annual Maxima quantiles, especially for the shortest durations and for the more extreme events Modifications in extreme precipitation spatiotemporal scaling properties and annual and diurnal cycles are also projected