Ending the Epidemic in America Will Not Happen if the Status Quo Continues: Modeled Projections for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence in 6 US Cities. (14th October 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Nosyk, Bohdan; Zang, Xiao; Krebs, Emanuel; Min, Jeong Eun; Behrends, Czarina N; Del Rio, Carlos; Dombrowski, Julia C; Feaster, Daniel J; Golden, Matthew; Marshall, Brandon D L; Mehta, Shruti H; Metsch, Lisa R; Schackman, Bruce R; Shoptaw, Steven; Strathdee, Steffanie A
• Is Part Of: Clinical infectious diseases. Volume 69:Number 12(2019)
• Page Start: 2195
• Page End: 2198
• Publication Date: 2019-10-14
• Subjects: HIV/AIDS -- dynamic transmission model -- epidemiological projection -- "Ending the HIV epidemic" plan; Communicable diseases -- Periodicals; 616.905
• DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciz1015
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1058-4838

Abstract

Abstract: We estimated 10-year (2020–2030) trajectories for human immunodeficiency virus incidence in 6 US cities. Estimated incidence will only decrease in 2 of 6 cities, with the overall population-weighted incidence decreasing 3.1% (95% credible interval [CrI], ˗1.0% to 8.5%) by 2025, and 4.3% (95% CrI, ˗2.6% to 12.7%) by 2030 across cities. Targeted, context-specific combination implementation strategies will be necessary to meet the newly established national targets.