Sensitivity analysis of capital and energy production cost for off-grid building integrated photovoltaic systems. (March 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Uzair, Muhammad; Rehman, Naveed ur; Yousuf, Muhammad Uzair
• Is Part Of: Renewable energy. Volume 186(2022)
• Page Start: 195
• Page End: 206
• Publication Date: 2022-03
• Subjects: BIPV -- Carbon credits -- Life cycle cost -- Cost correlation -- Latin hypercube sampling -- Regression analysis; Renewable energy sources -- Periodicals; Power resources -- Periodicals; Énergies renouvelables -- Périodiques; Ressources énergétiques -- Périodiques; 333.794
• DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.01.003
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0960-1481

Abstract

Abstract: This paper presents a methodology for performing sensitivity analysis on the capital and energy production costs of off-grid Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) systems. The different influencing parameters that are considered in this study are the daily electric load on the system, available sunshine hours, per unit costs of components, maintenance and replacement costs, several design and rating factors, interest rates, and carbon credits. The probabilistic-based Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique and log-log regression were used to develop the correlations for the capital cost and energy production cost of the system. The results were validated by comparing them with case studies available in the published literature. Then, a standardized version of the dataset was used to derive the elasticity constants associated with each parameter, which quantified the change in costs when the parameter value was increased by a unit percentage. The effects on the costs of increasing the parameters by 10% were quantified, ranked and compared. For the capital cost, the three most sensitive parameters were the daily electric load on system, the fudge factor and the available sunshine hours. In contrast, for the energy production cost, the three most sensitive parameters were the annual maintenance cost factor, the fudge factor and the interest rate. The correlation trends between these parameters and the costs were also plotted. Precautions and potential stakeholder actions for reducing the costs of off-grid BIPV systems are suggested.