Climate change in Brazil: dealing with uncertainty in agricultural productivity models and the implications for economy-wide impacts. Issue 1 (2nd January 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Souza, Bruno; Haddad, Eduardo
• Is Part Of: Spatial economic analysis. Volume 17:Issue 1(2022)
• Page Start: 83
• Page End: 100
• Publication Date: 2022-01-02
• Subjects: climate change -- agricultural productivity -- spatial economics -- Brazil; C68 -- Q54 -- R11 -- R15; Space in economics -- Periodicals; Economic geography -- Periodicals; Space in economics -- Econometric models -- Periodicals; Urbanization -- Periodicals; Espace (Économie politique) -- Périodiques; Économétrie -- Périodiques; Géographie économique -- Périodiques; Économie industrielle -- Périodiques; Économie du travail -- Périodiques; Économie urbaine -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Relations économiques internationales -- Périodiques; 330.9
• DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2021.1934524
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1742-1772

Abstract

ABSTRACT: This paper estimates the economic impacts of climate change over the Brazilian regions until the end of the century. We estimate the direct and indirect impact of the projected changes in climate on the yield of the country's main crops. The results point to a broad spatial heterogeneity of impacts across the country. Using the extreme scenarios created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (RCP 2.6 and 8.5), our predictions indicate that the average annual losses due to climate change range from 0.4% to 1.8% of Brazilian gross domestic product until the end of the century.