Expiring Eviction Moratoriums and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality. Issue 12 (26th July 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Leifheit, Kathryn M; Linton, Sabriya L; Raifman, Julia; Schwartz, Gabriel L; Benfer, Emily A; Zimmerman, Frederick J; Pollack, Craig Evan
• Is Part Of: American journal of epidemiology. Volume 190:Issue 12(2021)
• Page Start: 2503
• Page End: 2510
• Publication Date: 2021-07-26
• Subjects: COVID-19 -- eviction -- housing -- social policy; Epidemiology -- Periodicals; Public health -- Periodicals; 614.4
• DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwab196
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0002-9262

Abstract

Abstract: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated economic crisis have placed millions of US households at risk of eviction. Evictions may accelerate COVID-19 transmission by decreasing individuals' ability to socially distance. We leveraged variation in the expiration of eviction moratoriums in US states to test for associations between evictions and COVID-19 incidence and mortality. The study included 44 US states that instituted eviction moratoriums, followed from March 13 to September 3, 2020. We modeled associations using a difference-in-difference approach with an event-study specification. Negative binomial regression models of cases and deaths included fixed effects for state and week and controlled for time-varying indicators of testing, stay-at-home orders, school closures, and mask mandates. COVID-19 incidence and mortality increased steadily in states after eviction moratoriums expired, and expiration was associated with a doubling of COVID-19 incidence (incidence rate ratio = 2.1; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 3.9) and a 5-fold increase in COVID-19 mortality (mortality rate ratio = 5.4; CI: 3.1, 9.3) 16 weeks after moratoriums lapsed. These results imply an estimated 433, 700 excess cases (CI: 365, 200, 502, 200) and 10, 700 excess deaths (CI: 8, 900, 12, 500) nationally by September 3, 2020. The expiration of eviction moratoriums was associated with increased COVID-19 incidence and mortality, supporting the public-health rationale for eviction prevention to limit COVID-19 cases and deaths.