Flight to Safety: COVID-Induced Changes in the Intensity of Status Quo Preference and Voting Behavior. Issue 1 (28th February 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: BISBEE, JAMES; HONIG, DAN
• Is Part Of: American political science review. Volume 116:Issue 1(2022)
• Page Start: 70
• Page End: 86
• Publication Date: 2022-02-28
• Subjects: Political science -- Periodicals; Periodicals; 320.05
• DOI: 10.1017/S0003055421000691
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0003-0554

Abstract

Abstract : The relationship between anxiety and investor behavior is well known enough to warrant its own aphorism: a "flight to safety." We posit that anxiety alters the intensity of voters' preference for the status quo, inducing a political flight to safety toward establishment candidates. Leveraging the outbreak of the novel coronavirus during the Democratic primary election of 2020, we identify a causal effect of the outbreak on voting, with Biden benefiting between 7 and 15 percentage points at Sanders's expense. A survey experiment in which participants exposed to an anxiety-inducing prompt choose the less disruptive hypothetical candidate provides further evidence of our theorized flight to safety among US-based respondents. Evidence from 2020 French municipal and US House primary elections suggests a COVID-induced flight to safety generalizes to benefit mainstream candidates across a variety of settings. Our findings suggest an as-yet underappreciated preference for "safe" candidates in times of anxiety.