Causality and initiation of alcohol control policy. A response to Allamani. (4th August 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Rehm, Jürgen; Purshouse, Robin C.
• Is Part Of: Drug and alcohol review. Volume 40:Number 7(2021)
• Page Start: 1389
• Page End: 1391
• Publication Date: 2021-08-04
• Subjects: alcohol -- causality -- probabilistic -- alcohol control policy; Substance abuse -- Periodicals; Alcoholism -- Periodicals; Drinking of alcoholic beverages -- Periodicals; 616.86
• DOI: 10.1111/dar.13371
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0959-5236

Abstract

Abstract: In a recent commentary, Allamani asked how one can establish causality in epidemiological research, and specifically about causality as it relates to alcohol control policy. Epidemiology customarily uses a sufficient‐component cause model, where a sufficient cause for an outcome is determined by a set of minimal conditions and events that inevitably produce the stated outcome. While this model is theoretically clear, its operationalisation often involves probabilistic elements. Recent advances in agent‐based modelling may improve operationalisation. The implications for alcohol control policy from this model are straightforward: the so‐called alcohol‐attributable fraction denotes the cases of morbidity or mortality which would not have happened in the absence of alcohol use.