P-OGC06 The effect of surgical complications on long-term prognosis following oesophagectomy for oesophageal cancer. (16th December 2021) - Broadbent, Anna
Abstract: Background: Globally, oesophageal cancer incidence continues to increase. In recent years, surgical and oncological advancements have increased survival rates. Despite this, survival remains <50% at five-years for patients treated with curative oesophagectomy. Previous data has suggested post-operative complications may play a role in long-term increased mortality in oesophageal cancer patients. This study aimed to examine the effect of adverse in-hospital events following oesophagectomy on the long-term prognosis for oesophageal cancer, including assessing the effect of cumulative complication burden using data from a single high-volume academic unit in the UK. Methods: Retrospective analysis of patients undergoing oesophagectomy for oesophageal adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma was performed to assess the relationship between in-hospital events and long-term survival. Analysis was limited to patients who survived to 90 days post-oesophagectomy (n = 380). Complications were graded according to the Clavien-Dindo (CD) classification and the Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI). Survival was estimated using Kaplan Meier survival curves and multivariate cox-regression, adjusting for variables known to influence survival. The absolute magnitude of effect of complications on survival was assessed using the risk-adjusted population attributable fraction (PAF), which estimates the percentage improvement in survival if specified complications were removed. Results: Complications occurred in 251 patients (66.1%). ≥CD3a complications (HR1.65, 95%CI 1.15-2.38, p < 0.010) and unplanned critical care admissions (HR2.24, 95%CI 1.45-3.46, p < 0.001) were independently associated with worse prognosis whereas pulmonary complications and anastomotic leak were not. A CCI >30 was the optimum cut-point for OS (HR1.94, 95%CI 1.36-2.78, p < 0.001), and after weighting to remove confounding bias median survival was shorter with CCI>30 (28vs72 months, p < 0.001). There was no difference in median survival when CCI>30 occurred from major or multiple minor complications (31 vs 21 months, p = 0.096). The risk adjusted PAF for CCI>30 was 8.5% (95%CI 3.6-13.1%). Conclusions: Long-term survival following oesophagectomy for oesophageal cancer is significantly affected by major complications and unplanned critical care admissions. The cumulative effect of multiple post-operative minor complications is comparable to the effect of major complications on long-term survival from oesophageal cancer, and cause a substantial number of potentially preventable deaths, even in patients who survive to discharge.