The association between real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction cycle threshold values, symptoms and disease severity among COVID-19 patients in the community: a retrospective cohort study. Issue 3 (4th March 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Makov-Assif, Maya; Krispin, Sydney; Ben-Shlomo, Yatir; Holander, Tal; Dagan, Noa; Balicer, Ran; Barda, Noam
• Is Part Of: Infectious diseases. Volume 54:Issue 3(2022)
• Page Start: 205
• Page End: 212
• Publication Date: 2022-03-04
• Subjects: COVID-19 -- severe COVID-19 -- RT-PCR -- cycle threshold -- community; Communicable diseases -- Periodicals; Communicable Diseases -- Periodicals; Communicable diseases; Periodicals; 616.9
• DOI: 10.1080/23744235.2021.1998606
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2374-4235

Abstract

Abstract: Background: COVID-19 continues to spread throughout the world. Real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is used to diagnose COVID-19, with its cycle threshold (Ct) value inversely related to the viral load. The association between Ct values and COVID-19 related outcomes has been studied in the hospital setting but less so in the community. We aimed to estimate the association between Ct values and the severity of community-diagnosed COVID-19 to provide evidence on the utility of Ct testing in this setting. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study based on data from Israel's largest health organization. The study population included 34, 658 individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 by RT-PCR and had available Ct values between June 1 st and December 21 st, 2020. Outcomes included COVID-19 related symptoms, hospitalization, severe disease, and death. Ct values were modelled both as discrete and continuous exposures. Results: After adjusting for known risk factors for severe COVID-19, low Ct values were associated with symptomatic disease (odds ratio [OR]: 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.21–1.84), hospitalization (OR: 1.27; 95%CI: 1.12–1.49), severe disease (OR: 1.80; 95%CI: 1.43–2.27), and death (OR: 1.64; 95%CI: 1.06–2.59). By modelling the exposure as continuous, we noticed a dose-response relationship, with the risk gradually rising with lower Ct values. Conclusions: This study found a significant association between low Ct values and severe COVID-19 related outcomes, with a dose-response relationship. This suggests that Ct values could be helpful in identifying high-risk patients diagnosed in the community.