Delay in the Effect of Restricting Community Mobility on the Spread of COVID-19 During the First Wave in the United States. (22nd November 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: He, Shan; Lee, Jooyoung; Langworthy, Benjamin; Xin, Junyi; James, Peter; Yang, Yang; Wang, Molin
• Is Part Of: Open forum infectious diseases. Volume 9:Number 1(2022)
• Publication Date: 2021-11-22
• Subjects: community mobility -- COVID-19 -- infectious diseases -- spatio-temporal models -- statistical modeling; Communicable diseases -- Periodicals; Medical microbiology -- Periodicals; Infection -- Periodicals; 616.9
• DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofab586
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2328-8957

Abstract

Abstract: Background: It remains unclear how changes in human mobility shaped the transmission dynamic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during its first wave in the United States. Methods: By coupling a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model with reported case data and Google mobility data at the county level, we found that changes in movement were associated with notable changes in reported COVID-19 incidence rates about 5 to 7 weeks later. Results: Among all movement types, residential stay was the most influential driver of COVID-19 incidence rate, with a 10% increase 7 weeks ago reducing the disease incidence rate by 13% (95% credible interval, 6%–20%). A 10% increase in movement from home to workplaces, retail and recreation stores, public transit, grocery stores, and pharmacies 7 weeks ago was associated with an increase of 5%–8% in the COVID-10 incidence rate. In contrast, parks-related movement showed minimal impact. Conclusions: Policy-makers should anticipate such a delay when planning intervention strategies restricting human movement.