Epidemic dynamics on metapopulation networks with node2vec mobility. (7th February 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Meng, Lingqi; Masuda, Naoki
• Is Part Of: Journal of theoretical biology. Volume 534(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-02-07
• Subjects: Metapopulation model -- Susceptible-infectious-susceptible model -- Second-order random walk -- Epidemic threshold; Biology -- Periodicals; Biological Science Disciplines -- Periodicals; Biology -- Periodicals; Biologie -- Périodiques; Theoretische biologie; Biology; Periodicals; 571.05
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110960
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0022-5193

Abstract

Highlights: We propose a metapopulation SIS model with a second-order mobility rule. We analytically derive the epidemic threshold for general metapopulation networks. Epidemic spreading is suppressed when individuals diffuse fast in heterogeneous networks. The epidemic threshold is a constant for the extended ring network. Abstract: Metapopulation models have been a powerful tool for both theorizing and simulating epidemic dynamics. In a metapopulation model, one considers a network composed of subpopulations and their pairwise connections, and individuals are assumed to migrate from one subpopulation to another obeying a given mobility rule. While how different mobility rules affect epidemic dynamics in metapopulation models has been studied, there have been relatively few efforts on comparison of the effects of simple (i.e., unbiased) random walks and more complex mobility rules. Here we study a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) dynamics in a metapopulation model in which individuals obey a parametric second-order random-walk mobility rule called the node2vec. We map the second-order mobility rule of the node2vec to a first-order random walk in a network whose each node is a directed edge connecting a pair of subpopulations and then derive the epidemic threshold. For various networks, we find that the epidemic threshold is large (therefore, epidemic spreading tends to be suppressed) when the individuals infrequently backtrack or infrequently visit the common neighbors of the currently visited and the last visited subpopulations than when the individuals obey the simple random walk. The amount of change in the epidemic threshold induced by the node2vec mobility is in general not as large as, but is sometimes comparable with, the one induced by the change in the diffusion rate for individuals.