Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals. (24th January 2022)
- Record Type:
- Journal Article
- Title:
- Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals. (24th January 2022)
- Main Title:
- Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals
- Authors:
- Cain, Michelle
Jenkins, Stuart
Allen, Myles R.
Lynch, John
Frame, David J.
Macey, Adrian H.
Peters, Glen P. - Abstract:
- Abstract : Meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goal necessitates limiting methane (CH4 )-induced warming, in addition to achieving net-zero or (net-negative) carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions. In our model, for the median 1.5°C scenario between 2020 and 2050, CH4 mitigation lowers temperatures by 0.1°C; CO2 increases it by 0.2°C. CO2 emissions continue increasing global mean temperature until net-zero emissions are reached, with potential for lowering temperatures with net-negative emissions. By contrast, reducing CH4 emissions starts to reverse CH4 -induced warming within a few decades. These differences are hidden when framing climate mitigation using annual 'CO2 -equivalent' emissions, including targets based on aggregated annual emission rates. We show how the different warming responses to CO2 and CH4 emissions can be accurately aggregated to estimate warming by using 'warming-equivalent emissions', which provide a transparent and convenient method to inform policies and measures for mitigation, or demonstrate progress towards a temperature goal. The method presented (GWP*) uses well-established climate science concepts to relate GWP100 to temperature, as a simple proxy for a climate model. The use of warming-equivalent emissions for nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies would enhance the transparency of stocktakes of progress towards a long-term temperature goal, compared to the use of standard equivalence methods. This article is part of aAbstract : Meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goal necessitates limiting methane (CH4 )-induced warming, in addition to achieving net-zero or (net-negative) carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions. In our model, for the median 1.5°C scenario between 2020 and 2050, CH4 mitigation lowers temperatures by 0.1°C; CO2 increases it by 0.2°C. CO2 emissions continue increasing global mean temperature until net-zero emissions are reached, with potential for lowering temperatures with net-negative emissions. By contrast, reducing CH4 emissions starts to reverse CH4 -induced warming within a few decades. These differences are hidden when framing climate mitigation using annual 'CO2 -equivalent' emissions, including targets based on aggregated annual emission rates. We show how the different warming responses to CO2 and CH4 emissions can be accurately aggregated to estimate warming by using 'warming-equivalent emissions', which provide a transparent and convenient method to inform policies and measures for mitigation, or demonstrate progress towards a temperature goal. The method presented (GWP*) uses well-established climate science concepts to relate GWP100 to temperature, as a simple proxy for a climate model. The use of warming-equivalent emissions for nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies would enhance the transparency of stocktakes of progress towards a long-term temperature goal, compared to the use of standard equivalence methods. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)'. … (more)
- Is Part Of:
- Philosophical transactions. Volume 380:Number 2215(2022)
- Journal:
- Philosophical transactions
- Issue:
- Volume 380:Number 2215(2022)
- Issue Display:
- Volume 380, Issue 2215 (2022)
- Year:
- 2022
- Volume:
- 380
- Issue:
- 2215
- Issue Sort Value:
- 2022-0380-2215-0000
- Page Start:
- Page End:
- Publication Date:
- 2022-01-24
- Subjects:
- methane -- climate -- emission metrics -- mitigation
Physical sciences -- Periodicals
Engineering -- Periodicals
Mathematics -- Periodicals
500 - Journal URLs:
- https://royalsocietypublishing.org/loi/rsta ↗
- DOI:
- 10.1098/rsta.2020.0456 ↗
- Languages:
- English
- ISSNs:
- 1364-503X
- Deposit Type:
- Legaldeposit
- View Content:
- Available online (eLD content is only available in our Reading Rooms) ↗
- Physical Locations:
- British Library STI - ELD Digital store
- Ingest File:
- 20259.xml