Polling in New Democracies and Electoral Malpractice: The Case of Brazil. (22nd May 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Lloyd, Ryan; Turgeon, Mathieu
• Is Part Of: International journal of public opinion research. Volume 33:Number 4(2021)
• Page Start: 1039
• Page End: 1049
• Publication Date: 2021-05-22
• Subjects: Public opinion -- Addresses, essays, lectures -- Periodicals; 303.38
• DOI: 10.1093/ijpor/edab005
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0954-2892

Abstract

Abstract: In many developing democracies, polling often comes with elevated levels of bias and variance. We argue that electoral malpractice can be one reason why. We build a theory and test it with data from elections between 2002 and 2014 in Brazil. We find that polling errors are larger in: (a) elections with many undecided voters and large imbalances in financial resources among campaigns; (b) the poorer Northeast region of Brazil, which is more closely associated with patronage and vote buying; and (c) low-profile, low-information elections. Our analysis serves as a cautionary tale for interpreting polling in democracies like Brazil, even if/when other sources of error in the polling industry are mitigated.