Predicting mortality from credit reports. Issue 4 (6th December 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: De Giorgi, Giacomo; Harding, Matthew; Vasconcelos, Gabriel F. R.
• Other Names: Bogan Vicki L. guestEditor.
• Is Part Of: Financial planning review. Volume 4:Issue 4(2021)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2021-12-06
• Subjects: credit report -- health behaviors -- machine learning -- mortality; Financial planning industry -- Periodicals; Finance, Personal -- Periodicals; 332.024
• DOI: 10.1002/cfp2.1135
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2573-8615

Abstract

Abstract: Data on hundreds of variables related to individual consumer finance behavior (such as credit card and loan activity) is routinely collected in many countries and plays an important role in lending decisions. We postulate that the detailed nature of this data may be used to predict outcomes in seemingly unrelated domains such as individual health. We build a series of machine learning models to demonstrate that credit report data can be used to predict individual mortality. Variable groups related to credit cards and various loans, mostly unsecured loans, are shown to carry significant predictive power. Lags of these variables are also significant thus indicating that dynamics also matters. Improved mortality predictions based on consumer finance data can have important economic implications in insurance markets but may also raise privacy concerns.