Evaluation of the North West Quality Improvement Programme risk prediction model as a 30-day mortality predictor. (October 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Webster, Leon; van der Linde, Ian; Hampton-Till, James; Davies, John R
• Is Part Of: Interventional cardiology. Volume 7:Number 5(2015)
• Page Start: 431
• Page End: 442
• Publication Date: 2015-10
• Subjects: 30-day mortality -- major adverse cardiac event (MACE) -- North West Quality Improvement Programme (NWQIP) -- risk model; Cardiology -- Periodicals; Coronary heart disease -- Treatment -- Periodicals; 616.1205
• DOI: 10.2217/ica.15.39
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1755-5310

Abstract

Aim: Externally validate North West Quality Improvement Programme (NWQIP) risk model for complications following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI); develop a 30-day mortality prediction model.Patients & methods : Retrospective analysis of 9279 PCI procedures from 2007 to 2012 in South East England. NWQIP discrimination and calibration was assessed for in-hospital complications and 30-day mortality. A risk model was created using logistic regression.Results: The receiver operating characteristic curve for NWQIP was 0.86; however, calibration was poor (p = 0.03). The custom receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.88 (p = 0.67). Ventilation and peripheral vascular disease were novel predictors.Conclusion: NWQIP discriminates well. However, changing demographics, comorbidities and increasingly frequent high-risk PCI procedures produce poor calibration. A model for 30-day mortality is proposed yielding good discrimination and calibration.