A scenario discovery approach to least-cost electrification modelling in Burkina Faso. (November 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Sahlberg, Andreas; Khavari, Babak; Korkovelos, Alexandros; Fuso Nerini, Francesco; Howells, Mark
• Is Part Of: Energy strategy reviews. Volume 38(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-11
• Subjects: Energy access -- Geospatial electrification -- Scenario discovery -- Burkina Faso; Energy policy -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2021.100714
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2211-467X

Abstract

Abstract: This paper presents the first application of the scenario discovery approach in geospatial electrification modelling. 1944 electrification simulations were constructed for Burkina Faso from a combination seven input levers, including four grid-extension strategies. The scenario discovery analysis identifies a scenario described by a high grid electricity generation cost in combination with an intensification strategy for grid-extension, as most likely to lead to a high cost of electricity in Burkina Faso. Thus, to avoid such a high cost, decisions in the country could be targeted either at lowering grid electricity generation costs or to choose one of the other two grid-extension strategies, or both. For each of the grid-extension strategies, a number of drivers causing a high LCOE were identified. Common drivers for all strategies were the grid electricity generation cost and discount rate. The scenario discovery approach was used to identify the key drivers of high electrification costs and their interactions, providing useful information that might not be gained from a traditional scenario-axes approach. This approach provided a structured way to analyze more parameters than found in previous electrification studies for Burkina Faso. The paper discusses on the pros compared to a traditional scenario-axes approach, such as reduced risk of perceived bias and improved ability to deal with multiple uncertain parameters, but also notes the additional computational requirements. Highlights: Increased access to electricity requires a combination of grid- and off-grid technologies. We apply a scenario discovery approach to examine electrification pathways for Burkina Faso. The approach allowed examination of an increased number of simulations compared to previous electrification studies. We find grid-intensification combined with high cost of grid electricity most likely to cause high electricity supply costs.