Growth in Syria: losses from the war and potential recovery in the aftermath. Issue 2 (3rd July 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Devadas, Sharmila; Elbadawi, Ibrahim; Loayza, Norman V.
• Is Part Of: Middle East development journal. Volume 13:Issue 2(2021)
• Page Start: 215
• Page End: 244
• Publication Date: 2021-07-03
• Subjects: War -- conflict -- reconstruction -- growth -- factors of production -- Syria; D74 -- F51 -- 011 -- 040 -- 053; Middle East -- Economic conditions -- 1979- -- Periodicals; Economic forecasting -- Middle East -- Periodicals; Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1960- -- Periodicals; Economic forecasting -- Africa -- Periodicals; Economic forecasting; Economic history; Africa; Middle East; Periodicals; 338.95605
• DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1930829
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1793-8120

Abstract

ABSTRACT: This paper addresses three questions: (1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; (2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and (3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact estimates point to negative GDP growth of −12% on average over 2011–2018, with output contracting to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three political settlement outcomes: a baseline (Sochi-plus) moderate scenario, an optimistic (robust political settlement) scenario, and a pessimistic (de facto balance of power) scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1%, 8.2%, or 3.1%, assuming a final and stable resolution of the conflict.