Near real-time bed modelling feasibility study. Issue 4 (2nd October 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: England, Tracey; Gartner, Daniel; Ostler, Edward; Harper, Paul; Behrens, Doris; Boulton, John; Bull, Dilwyn; Cordeaux, Claire; Jenkins, Ian; Lindsay, Fiona; Monk, Rhys; Watkins, Leanne
• Is Part Of: Journal of simulation. Volume 15:Issue 4(2021)
• Page Start: 261
• Page End: 272
• Publication Date: 2021-10-02
• Subjects: Bed management -- simulation modelling -- forecasting -- emergency -- elective; Operations research -- Periodicals; Mathematical models -- Periodicals; Simulation methods -- Periodicals; 511.805
• DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2019.1706434
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1747-7778

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Hospital bed management is crucial to ensure that patients do not have to wait for the right bed for their care. A simulation model has been developed that mimics the bed management rules applied to the Trauma & Orthopaedic wards of a busy Welsh hospital. The model includes forecasting methodologies to predict the number of emergency admissions, split by gender. The model uses near real-time admission data to see whether patients will be admitted to a given ward on a given day in a 7-day planning horizon. The one-week feasibility pilot study examined the accuracy and usability of the tool. The study has shown that it is possible to correctly predict the short-term processes of a Trauma & Orthopaedic bed management system by accurately forecasting arrivals, using known data and statistical distributions to predict patient length of stay, and applying generic bed management rules to dictate their placement.