Malthus Goes to China: The Effect of "Positive Checks" on Grain Market Development, 1736–1910. (1st December 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gu, Yanfeng; Kung, James Kai-sing
• Is Part Of: Journal of economic history. Volume 81:Number 4(2021)
• Page Start: 1137
• Page End: 1172
• Publication Date: 2021-12-01
• Subjects: Economic history -- Periodicals; 330.9005
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022050721000437
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0022-0507

Abstract

Abstract : After peaking around the mid-eighteenth century, grain market integration in China declined by a colossal 80 percent amid a twofold increase in population and remained at low levels for well over a century. Markets only resumed their growth momentum after the largest peasant revolt—the Taiping Rebellion—wiped out roughly one-sixth of the Chinese population starting 1851. This U-shaped pattern of grain market integration distinguished China from Europe in their trajectories of market development. Using grain prices to divide China into grain-deficit and grainsurplus regions, we find that the negative relationship between population growth and market integration originated from the grain-surplus-cum-exporting regions.