A Bayesian model identifying locations at risk from human‐transported exotic pathogens. (4th May 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: McKelvey, Steven C.; Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.; Hawley, Kelly R.
• Other Names: Gajardo Pedro guestEditor.; Ramírez Héctor guestEditor.
• Is Part Of: Natural resource modelling. Volume 34:Number 4(2021)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2021-05-04
• Subjects: Bayesian analysis -- human‐mediated pathways -- infection detection and prevention -- pathogen dispersal -- Phytophthora ramorum -- probabilistic network model; Conservation of natural resources -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals; Ecology -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals; 371.397
• DOI: 10.1111/nrm.12307
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0890-8575

Abstract

Abstract: A two‐phase Bayesian model is presented for updating risk assessments for locations susceptible to infection by exotic pathogens. Human transportation from previously infected regions to uninfected regions is the main dispersal mechanism. Information embedded in patterns within the transportation flow are exploited in the update process. We explore the sensitivity of the model's outputs to changes in inputs. A sample application of the model to sudden oak death, using fictitious infection data, is performed.