Forecasting of Air Maximum Temperature on Monthly Basis Using Singular Spectrum Analysis and Linear Autoregressive Model. Issue 1 (November 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Saad Al-Bdairi, Nabeel Saleem; Zubaidi, Salah L.; Al-Bugharbee, Hussein; Hashim, Khalid; Farhan, Sabeeh L.; Defae, Asad Al
• Is Part Of: IOP conference series. Volume 877:Issue 1(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-11
• Subjects: Autoregressive Model -- Baghdad City -- prediction model -- temperature; Earth sciences -- Periodicals; Environmental sciences -- Congresses; Environmental sciences -- Periodicals; 550.5
• DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/877/1/012033
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1755-1307

Abstract

Abstract: In this research, the singular spectrum analysis technique is combined with a linear autoregressive model for the purpose of prediction and forecasting of monthly maximum air temperature. The temperature time series is decomposed into three components and the trend component is subjected for modelling. The performance of modelling for both prediction and forecasting is evaluated via various model fitness function. The results show that the current method presents an excellent performance in expecting the maximum air temperature in future based on previous recordings.