Forecast of natural gas consumption in the Asia-Pacific region using a fractional-order incomplete gamma grey model. (15th December 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Xiong, Pingping; Li, Kailing; Shu, Hui; Wang, Junjie
• Is Part Of: Energy. Volume 237(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-12-15
• Subjects: Grey forecast -- Fractional-order accumulation -- Incomplete gamma -- Optimization algorithms; Power resources -- Periodicals; Power (Mechanics) -- Periodicals; Energy consumption -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.121533
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0360-5442

Abstract

Abstract: To forecast natural gas consumption more accurately, to clearly understand the future supply situation, and to optimize the allocation of resources, a new fractional-order accumulation-based incomplete gamma grey forecasting model is proposed in this paper. To further optimize the traditional grey action quantity, dynamic nonlinear action-based incomplete gamma functions are taken as the grey action quantity and combined with fractional-order accumulation. The role of new information is fully considered, and a detailed modeling process is presented, including computational steps and intelligent optimization algorithms. In this study, this new model is used to simulate and forecast natural gas consumption in the Asia-Pacific region from 2008 to 2018. First, Bangladesh and the Philippines are taken as examples to show the error changes incurred by the model under the control of two parameters. Then, a simulation and prediction of natural gas consumption are conducted and compared with those of other traditional univariate grey models. The results show that the MAPE obtained by the new model is the lowest, which indicates the prediction accuracy and effectiveness of the model. This model has good prediction performance for natural gas consumption and can be extended to more energy consumption prediction problems. Highlights: The grey prediction model can be applied to predict natural gas consumption. A new fractional order accumulation incomplete gamma grey forecast model is built. The model is applied to predict natural gas consumption in the Asia-Pacific region. Comparing with the traditional grey model, the model has better prediction effects. The fractional order and nonlinear parameter are determined by intelligent algorithm.