A novel method for carbon emission forecasting based on Gompertz's law and fractional grey model: Evidence from American industrial sector. (January 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gao, Mingyun; Yang, Honglin; Xiao, Qinzi; Goh, Mark
• Is Part Of: Renewable energy. Volume 181(2022)
• Page Start: 803
• Page End: 819
• Publication Date: 2022-01
• Subjects: Carbon emissions -- Grey model -- Gompertz differential equation -- Fractional accumulation -- Chaotic whale optimization algorithm; Renewable energy sources -- Periodicals; Power resources -- Periodicals; Énergies renouvelables -- Périodiques; Ressources énergétiques -- Périodiques; 333.794
• DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.09.072
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0960-1481

Abstract

Abstract: With the manufacturing reshoring to the US, increasing attention are focus on its energy consumption and environmental effects and accurate prediction of carbon emissions is vital to controlling growth from the source. Considering the slowing growth in carbon emissions with the Gompertz's law, this paper establishes a Gompertz differential equation. According to the differential information principle and fractional accumulation operator, this differential equation is transformed into a fractional accumulation grey Gompertz model. Furthermore, the chaotic whale optimization algorithm is used to optimize the order of accumulation generation and the grey background value in the proposed model. Then the Gompertz's datasets and six validation cases about carbon emissions are used to show that the proposed model demonstrates better accuracy in all cases and efficiency in the carbon emissions forecasting with several existing models. Three case studies indicate that the proposed model can fit the trend of American industrial carbon emissions better. The model results also reveal the recent policy changes have promoted the uptrend of the industrial and the total carbon emissions in the U.S. The future forecasting suggests that U.S. carbon emission is estimated to be 17.01% (in total emissions) or 17.89% (in industrial emission) percent below 2005 levels by 2025 under current policies, falling short of its commitment submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Graphical abstract: Image 1 Highlights: This paper discussed the Gompertz's law in carbon emissions. A FAGGM(1, 1) model is created for predicting carbon emissions. The case study reveals the rising of peak in the industrial carbon emission in U.S. The reduction percentage of carbon emission on 2005 levels by 2025 will be 17.01% (in total), 17.89% (in industry) and 26.23% (in commerce) in U.S.