247 Optimising prediction accuracy of complete cytoreduction for high grade serous advanced ovarian cancer patients using nearest-neighbor models. (4th December 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Laios, Alexandros; Tan, Yong; Hutson, Richard; Theophilou, George; Dejong, Diederick
• Is Part Of: International journal of gynecological cancer. Volume 30(2020)Supplement 4
• Page Start: A58
• Page End: A59
• Publication Date: 2020-12-04
• Subjects: Generative organs, Female -- Cancer -- Periodicals; 616.99465
• DOI: 10.1136/ijgc-2020-ESGO.106
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1048-891X

Abstract

Abstract : Introduction/Background: The foundation of modern ovarian cancer care is cytoreductive surgery to remove all macroscopic disease (R0). Identification of R0 resection patients may help individualise treatment. Machine learning and AI have been shown to be effective systems for classification and prediction. For a disease as heterogenous as ovarian cancer, they could potentially outperform conventional predictive algorithms for routine clinical use. We investigated the performance of an AI system, the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) classifier to predict R0, comparing it with logistic regression. Methodolog: A cohort of patients diagnosed with high grade serous advanced ovarian, tubal and primary peritoneal cancer (HGSOC), undergoing surgical cytoreduction from 2015–2019, was selected from the ovarian database. Performance variables included age, BMI, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), timing of surgery, surgical complexity and disease scores. The k-NN algorithm classified R0 vs non-R0 patients using 3–20 nearest neighbors. Prediction accuracy was estimated as percentage of observations in the training set correctly classified. The relative importance of the selected variables was quantified by calculating the prediction accuracy/error rate in relation to the number of predictors included in the models. Results: 154 patients were identified, with mean age of 64.4 + 10.5 yrs, BMI of 27.2 +5.8 and mean SCS of 3 + 1 (1–8). Complete and optimal cytoreduction was achieved in 62% and 88% patients. The mean predictive accuracy was 66% compared to 63.4% by logistic regression. R0 resection prediction of true negatives was as high as 90% using k=20 neighbors. From the variables tested to contribute in R0 prediction, only disease score was statistically significant (p = 0.0006). For a given neighborhood size k=15, R0 resection was best predicted by a kNN model that included age and CCI (figure 1 ). Conclusion: The k-NN algorithm is a versatile and promising tool for R0 resection in HGSOC patients, which outperforms logistic regression. The model, which is very much reflective of 'previous clinical experience' can be directly available to clinicians and is expected to improve accuracy with data expansion. Disclosures: No disclosures.