Explaining Uncertainty Avoidance in Megaprojects: Resource Constraints, Strategic Behaviour, or Institutions?. (8th August 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Machiels, Thomas; Compernolle, Tine; Coppens, Tom
• Is Part Of: Planning theory & practice. Volume 22:Number 4(2021)
• Page Start: 537
• Page End: 555
• Publication Date: 2021-08-08
• Subjects: Megaprojects -- uncertainty -- adaptive planning -- institutional analysis; City planning -- Periodicals; Regional planning -- Periodicals; 307.1205
• DOI: 10.1080/14649357.2021.1944659
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1464-9357

Abstract

ABSTRACT: This paper asks why uncertainties are avoided in dominant megaproject practice while planning scholars are increasingly advocating adaptive planning and uncertainty acknowledgement. We propose a novel analytical framework to explain uncertainty avoidance, consisting of two current explanations – resource constraint and strategic behaviour models – and a complementary institutional model. We apply the framework to a seaport megaproject in Flanders to test its validity. Results show that the institutional model increases our understanding of uncertainty avoidance. More attention to planning institutions and far-reaching institutional changes are required to facilitate a move towards uncertainty acknowledgement and adaptive planning.