Age-stratified transmission model of COVID-19 in Ontario with human mobility during pandemic's first wave. Issue 9 (September 2021)
- Record Type:
- Journal Article
- Title:
- Age-stratified transmission model of COVID-19 in Ontario with human mobility during pandemic's first wave. Issue 9 (September 2021)
- Main Title:
- Age-stratified transmission model of COVID-19 in Ontario with human mobility during pandemic's first wave
- Authors:
- Fields, R.
Humphrey, L.
Flynn-Primrose, D.
Mohammadi, Z.
Nahirniak, M.
Thommes, E.W.
Cojocaru, M.G. - Abstract:
- Abstract: In this work, we employ a data-fitted compartmental model to visualize the progression and behavioral response to COVID-19 that match provincial case data in Ontario, Canada from February to June of 2020. This is a "rear-view mirror" glance at how this region has responded to the 1st wave of the pandemic, when testing was sparse and NPI measures were the only remedy to stave off the pandemic. We use an SEIR-type model with age-stratified subpopulations and their corresponding contact rates and asymptomatic rates in order to incorporate heterogeneity in our population and to calibrate the time-dependent reduction of Ontario-specific contact rates to reflect intervention measures in the province throughout lockdown and various stages of social-distancing measures. Cellphone mobility data taken from Google, combining several mobility categories, allows us to investigate the effects of mobility reduction and other NPI measures on the evolution of the pandemic. Of interest here is our quantification of the effectiveness of Ontario's response to COVID-19 before and after provincial measures and our conclusion that the sharp decrease in mobility has had a pronounced effect in the first few weeks of the lockdown, while its effect is harder to infer once other NPI measures took hold. Abstract : COVID-19; Coronavirus; Infectious disease modeling; Ontario; Age stratified; Age stratification; Mobility; Google mobility; SEIR; Compartmental model
- Is Part Of:
- Heliyon. Volume 7:Issue 9(2021)
- Journal:
- Heliyon
- Issue:
- Volume 7:Issue 9(2021)
- Issue Display:
- Volume 7, Issue 9 (2021)
- Year:
- 2021
- Volume:
- 7
- Issue:
- 9
- Issue Sort Value:
- 2021-0007-0009-0000
- Page Start:
- Page End:
- Publication Date:
- 2021-09
- Subjects:
- COVID-19 -- Coronavirus -- Infectious disease modeling -- Ontario -- Age stratified -- Age stratification -- Mobility -- Google mobility -- SEIR -- Compartmental model
Research -- Periodicals
Medical sciences -- Periodicals
Natural history -- Periodicals
Social sciences -- Periodicals
Earth sciences -- Periodicals
Physical sciences -- Periodicals
507.2 - Journal URLs:
- http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/24058440/ ↗
http://www.sciencedirect.com/ ↗ - DOI:
- 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e07905 ↗
- Languages:
- English
- ISSNs:
- 2405-8440
- Deposit Type:
- Legaldeposit
- View Content:
- Available online (eLD content is only available in our Reading Rooms) ↗
- Physical Locations:
- British Library DSC - BLDSS-3PM
British Library HMNTS - ELD Digital store - Ingest File:
- 19558.xml