Long-term memory law and empirical research on dry bulks shipping market fluctuations. (1st November 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Xu, Heng; Tao, Binbin; Shu, Yaqing; Wang, Yafei
• Is Part Of: Ocean & coastal management. Volume 213(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-11-01
• Subjects: Maritime market -- Panamax carrier -- Handy-size carrier -- Long memory -- R/S analysis; Marine resources -- Management -- Periodicals; Coastal zone management -- Periodicals; Coastal ecology -- Periodicals; Ressources marines -- Périodiques; Littoral -- Aménagement -- Périodiques; Écologie littorale -- Périodiques; Coastal ecology; Coastal zone management; Marine resources -- Management; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 551.46
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105838
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0964-5691

Abstract

Abstract: The international dry bulk shipping market is a complex and changeable shipping market, which is affected by the world's external economic and trade environment. It is difficult for the operation and decision-making of dry bulk transportation companies and other market practitioners. Based on the freight indexes of shipping sub-markets including the Panamax and the handy-size carrier, this paper uses the Rescaled Range Analysis (R/S) and the modified R/S analysis methods to theoretically and empirically investigate the long memory of the two shipping sub-markets. In addition, the V test method is used to calculate the number of non-periodic days in the two sub-markets. The research results show that both shipping sub-markets have long memory, with the non-periodic cycle length of 426 days for Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) and of 206 days for Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI). The insights into the characteristics of the international dry bulk shipping market and the long-memory law of the dry bulk shipping price index could benefit the decision-making and risk avoidance for dry bulk shipping practitioners. Highlights: The R/S and modified R/S methods are used to study the cyclicality of the shipping market. The non-periodical days of two sub-markets are measured using V test method. A case study of the Panamax and Handy-size shipping market is conducted. Historical data analysis provides decision-making basis for stakeholders.