Prediction of changes in water balance of Nam Co Lake under projected climate change scenarios. Issue 11 (18th August 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Adnan, Muhammad; Kang, Shichang; Saifullah, Muhammad; Liu, Shiyin; Zhang, Guoshuai; Zhao, Qiudong; Faiz, Muhammad Abrar; Zaman, Muhammad
• Is Part Of: Hydrological sciences journal. Volume 66:Issue 11(2021)
• Page Start: 1712
• Page End: 1727
• Publication Date: 2021-08-18
• Subjects: soil and water assessment tool model -- degree-day melt model -- Nam Co Lake -- water balance -- representative concentration pathways -- Tibetan Plateau; Hydrology -- Periodicals; 551.4805
• DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2021.1957474
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0262-6667

Abstract

ABSTRACT: This study predicts future variations in simulated water balance components of Nam Co Lake under projected climate change scenarios using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model in conjunction with the degree-day melt (DDM) model coupled with the glacier volume-area scaling law. We deduced that the water balance of Nam Co Lake will increase under all selected representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, but it will become negative from 2073 onward (under RCP8.5). Compared to 1981–2010, from 2011 to 2100, the projected Nam Co Lake levels show an increase at a rate of 0.63, 0.70, and 0.41 m/a under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively, with an area expansion of 778, 855, and 537 km 2 and a corresponding water volume increase of 155, 17, and 94 km 3, respectively; from 2011 to 2100, the lake area will expand by 38.6%, 42.4%, and 26.6% under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively.