Longitudinal analyses of the relationship between development density and the COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates: Early evidence from 1, 165 metropolitan counties in the United States. (July 2020) - Hamidi, Shima
Abstract: This longitudinal study aims to investigative the impacts of development density on the spread and mortality rates of COVID-19 in metropolitan counties in the United States. Multilevel Linear Modeling (MLM) is employed to model the infection rate and the mortality rate of COVID-19, accounting for the hierarchical (two-level) and longitudinal structure of the data. This study finds that large metropolitan size (measured in terms of population) leads to significantly higher COVID-19 infection rates and higher mortality rates. After controlling for metropolitan size and other confounding variables, county density leads to significantly lower infection rates and lower death rates. These findings recommend that urban planners and health professionals continue to advocate for compact development and continue to oppose urban sprawl for this and many other reasons documented in the literature, including the positive relationship between compact development and fitness and general health. Highlights: Connectivity matters more than density in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Large metropolitan areas are the most vulnerable to the pandemic outbreak. Dense counties have a significantly lower rate of COVID-19 mortality. Enplanement rate has a positive and insignificant impact on the COVID-19 infection rate.