Is compulsory home quarantine less effective than centralized quarantine in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak? Evidence from Hong Kong. (November 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zhu, Pengyu; Tan, Xinying
• Is Part Of: Sustainable cities and society. Volume 74(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-11
• Subjects: COVID-19 pandemic -- Compulsory home quarantine -- Synthetic Control Method -- Hong Kong; Sustainable urban development -- Periodicals; Sustainable buildings -- Periodicals; Urban ecology (Sociology) -- Periodicals; 307.76
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2021.103222
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2210-6707

Abstract

Highlights: This study evaluates the effectiveness of home quarantine for overseas arrivals. Synthetic control method is used to simulate hypothetical infection trends. Initial, case number under home quarantine were higher than centralized quarantine. In the later stage, home quarantine has similar efficacies to the centralized approach. Compulsory home quarantine with strengthened enforcement can be preferable policy. Abstract: Faced with the global spread of COVID-19, the Hong Kong government imposed compulsory home quarantine on all overseas arrivals, while cities in mainland China and Macau adopted a more stringent centralized quarantine approach. This study evaluates the effectiveness of compulsory home quarantine as a means of pandemic control. Combining epidemiological data with traditional socioeconomic and meteorological data from over 250 cities, we employ the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to construct a counterfactual "synthetic Hong Kong". This model simulates the infection trends for a hypothetical situation in which HK adopts centralized quarantine measures, and compares them to actual infection numbers. Results suggest that home quarantine would have been less effective than centralized quarantine initially. However, the infection rate under home quarantine later converges with the counterfactual estimate under centralized quarantine (0.136% vs. 0.174%), suggesting similar efficacy in the later phase of implementation. Considering its minimal reliance on public resources, home quarantine with heightened enforcement may therefore be preferable to centralized quarantine in countries with limited public health resources. Home quarantine as a quarantine alternative balances public protection and individual freedom, while conserving resources, making it a more sustainable option for many cities.