Exploring Brexit implications: the impact of longer journey times. (24th January 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Fingleton, Bernard
• Is Part Of: International journal of computational economics and econometrics. Volume 12:Number 1/2(2022)
• Page Start: 174
• Page End: 196
• Publication Date: 2022-01-24
• Subjects: Brexit -- journey times -- dynamic spatial panel model -- regional employment; Econometrics -- Periodicals; Economics -- Data processing -- Periodicals; 330.01519505
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1757-1170

Abstract

Brexit implies longer journey times between UK and EU regions. In this paper the elasticity of trade with respect to journey time by goods vehicles is estimated, and the impact of this on employment is evaluated using a dynamic spatial panel data model. The estimator allows for the presence of endogenous and predetermined causal variables, regional interdependence, and attempts to control for common factors causing macro-economic variation over the estimation period. The estimates show that a job shortfall can be expected in both the UK and EU regions, with considerable diversity of outcome across regions.